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What is the Deficit as Percent of GDP?

Deficit: The amount by which the government’s total budget outlays exceeds its total receipts for a fiscal year. —US Senate Budget Committee

In FY 2025 the federal deficit was 5.8 percent of GDP.

This year, FY 2026, the federal government in its latest budget has estimated that the deficit will be 6.8 percent of GDP.

Federal Deficit Analysis  

 

Recent US Federal Deficits as Percent of GDP

Recent US Federal Deficits as Pct GDP

Chart D.31f: Recent US Federal Deficits as Pct GDP

Federal Deficits rocketed, from 1.1 percent of GDP in 2007 to 9.8 percent of GDP in 2009 the Great Recession of 2006-2008. The bank bailouts under the TARP program accounted for almost half of the 2009 deficit.

After the Crash of 2008 was over the federal deficits started decreasing, getting to 4 percent of GDP in FY 2013 and 2.4 percent of GDP in FY 2015, but increasing again in FY 2016.

In the COVID year of 2025 the federal deficit was 5.8 percent of GDP.

Half a Century of US Federal Deficits as Percent of GDP

A Half-Century<br>of US Federal Deficits

Chart D.32f: A Half-Century
of US Federal Deficits

Betwen 1965 and 1990 the federal deficit generally increased, from 0.2 percent GDP in 1965 to 4.4 percent GDP in the aftermath of the 1990-91 recession. The only notable departure was a five year bulge in deficits in the early to mid 1980s due to the Reagan tax-rate cuts and defense buildup.

In the 1990s, during the Clinton administration, deficits consistently declined year on year, from a deficit of 3.9 percent of GDP in 1993 to a surplus of 2.3 percent GDP in 2000.

Tax cuts and the 2000-02 recession and the Iraq war caused a return to deficit spending in the early 2000s and the Bush administration, reaching 3.4 percent GDP in 2004. Deficits decline to 1.1 percent GDP in 2007 before ballooning to 9.8 percent GDP in 2009 in the downdraft of the Great Recession. Deficits declined to 2.4 percent GDP by 2015 but then increased rapidly to 5 percent of GDP. In the COVID crisis of 2020 the federal deficit exceeded 15 percent of GDP.

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US Federal Deficits in the 20th Century

Federal Deficits since 1900

Chart D.03f: Federal Deficits since 1900

The two major peaks of the federal deficit in the 20th century occurred during World War I and World War II.

Deficits increased steadily from the 1960s through the early 1990s, and then declined rapidly for the remainder of the 1990s.

Federal deficits increased in the early 2000s, and went over 10 percent of GDP in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008.

In the recovery from the Crash of 2008 deficits slowly reduced to 3 percent of GDP in 2015 and then started increasing again.

In the COVID crisis of 2020 the federal deficit ballooned to over 15 percent of GDP.

US Federal Deficits since the Founding

Federal Deficit since Founding

Chart D.04f: Federal Deficit since Founding

The United States government did not always run a deficit. In the 19th century the federal government typically only ran deficits during wartime or during financial crises. The government ran a deficit of 2 percent of GDP at the end of the war of 1812, and through the decade after the Panic of 1837 and culminating in the US - Mexican War of 1846-48. It ran a deficit of over 7 percent of GDP in the Civil War; and ran a deficit in the depressed 1890s.
In the 20th century the US ran a deficit during World War I, the Great Depression, World War II, and in almost all years since 1960, during peace and war.

CBO Forecast for Federal Deficit

CBO Forecast for Federal Deficit

Chart D.05f: CBO Forecast for Federal Deficit

According to the latest forecast from the Congressional Budget Office, the federal deficit will grow from 6.2 percent of GDP in 2025 to 7.3 percent of GDP by 2055.

Suggested Video: What is the Deficit?

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Debt Data Sources

Debt data is from official government sources.

Gross Domestic Product data comes from US Bureau of Economic Analysis and measuringworth.com.

Detailed table of debt data sources here.

Federal debt data begins in 1792.

State and local debt data begins in 1820.

State and local debt data for individual states begins in 1957.


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Gross Federal Debt

Debt Now:  $38,380,536,147,996.03
Debt 2/2020:$23,409,959,150,243.63

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Data Sources for 2021_2031:

Sources for 2021:

GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 3.2, 5.1, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances
'Guesstimated' by projecting the latest change in reported spending forward to future years

Sources for 2031:

GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 3.2, 5.1, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances
'Guesstimated' by projecting the latest change in reported spending forward to future years

> data sources for other years
> data update schedule.

Blog

Federal Budget for FY27 Released

On April 4, 2026, we updated usgovernmentspending.com with the numbers from the Public Budget Database in the Budget of the United States Government for Fiscal Year 2027. 

Here is how headline budget estimates for the upcoming FY 2027 fiscal year have changed since the release of the FY 2025 budget in Winter 2024. There were no budgetary estimates in the budget documents for the FY 2026 budget.

Federal Budget Changes for 2027
$ billionEstimate for 2027
in FY2025 Budget		Estimate for 2027
in FY2027 Budget		Change
Federal Outlays$7,696.6$8,092.9 +$569.1
Federal Receipts$6,186.2$5,921.0+$279.1
Federal Deficit$1,510.3$2,171.9+$290.0

You can see line item changes from budget to budget here. You can compare budget estimates with actuals here.

Account level spending estimates through FY 2031 come from the Outlays table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on usgovernmentspending.com on April 4, 2026.

Account level budget authority estimates through FY 2031 come from the Budget Authority table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on usgovernmentspending.com on April 4, 2026. 

US GDP for 2025 Released
On March 15, 2026 usgovernmentspending.com updated its GDP series with the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis ...

US, State Population Update for 2025
On January 21, 2026 the US Census Bureau released its US national and state population estimates for July 1, 2025.  On February 7, 2026 usgovernmentspending.com updated its US and state popula ...

> blog

Budget News

President’s FY 2025 Budget Release Scheduled for March 11
Although the FY 2024 appropriations process is not yet resolved

Biden to Release Budget March 9
will press McCarthy On Default Risk - Bloomberg

Biden to Release 2023 Budget Request on March 28
how the administration expects to spend money for priorities including aid to Ukraine and the continuing effort to fight the coronavirus pandemic, as well as legislative proposals such as increased funding for community policing programs, cancer research, and mental health education.

> archive

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