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What is the Federal Yield Curve

The Federal Yield Curve is a graph showing the yield on US federal securities of all maturities from one month to 30 years. Experts believe that the shape of the yield curve forecasts future turns in the economy.

Federal Yield Analysis  

 

This page is an analysis of yields on US federal securities.

Latest Federal Yield Curve

Chart Y.01f: Latest Federal Yield Curve

The US Treasury Yield Curve shows the current yield of the full range of securities issued by the US Treasury, from One Month Treasury Bills to 30 Year Treasury Bonds. “Experts agree” that a “normal” yield curve, where every security with a longer maturity has a yield greater than all securities with a shorter maturity, is the sign of a growing economy.

Federal Yield Curve for April 1, 2009

Chart Y.02f: Federal Yield Curve

At the bottom of a recession, as in April 2009, the federal yield curve is sharply positive. A sharply positive yield curve is a sign that the Federal Reserve Board is “fighting recession.”

Federal Yield Curve for November 28,2006

Chart Y.03f: Federal Yield Curve

An “inverted” yield curve, where US securities with shorter maturity have yields greater than some securities with a longer maturity, “experts agree,” is a flashing red sign indicating recession ahead. An “inverted” yield curve is a sign that the Federal Reserve Board is “fighting inflation.”

Federal Yield Curve for June 2, 2008

Chart Y.04f: Federal Yield Curve

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Spending Data Sources

Spending data is from official government sources.

Gross Domestic Product data comes from US Bureau of Economic Analysis and measuringworth.com.

Detailed table of spending data sources here.
Medicare breakdown here; Medicaid breakdown here.

Federal spending data begins in 1792.

State and local spending data begins in 1820.

State and local spending data for individual states begins in 1957.

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Federal Yield Curve
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Gross Federal Debt

Debt Now:  $40,413,639,012,305.97
Debt 2/2020:$23,409,959,150,243.63

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Data Sources for 2027:

GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 3.2, 5.1, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances
'Guesstimated' by projecting the latest change in reported spending forward to future years

> data sources for other years
> data update schedule.

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US Budget Deficit, Receipts, Outlays for FY 2026

On October 15, 2026, the US Treasury reported in its Monthly Treasury Statement (and xlsx) for September that the federal deficit for FY 2025 ending September 30, 2026, was $1,99 billion. Here are the numbers, including total receipts, total outlays, and deficit compared with the numbers projected in the FY 2026 federal budget published in February 2025:

Federal Finances
FY 2026 Outcomes
Budget
billions
Outcome
billions
Receipts $5,873    $5,403
Outlays$7,419$7,396
Deficit$1,547$1,993

The Monthly Treasury Statement includes "Table 4: Receipts of the United States Government, September 2026 and Other Periods." This table of receipts by source is used for usgovernmentspending.com to post details of federal receipt actuals for FY 2025. usdgovernmentspending.com obtains the data for outlays and receipts from apis at fiscaldata.treasury.gov.


This MTS report on FY 2026 actuals is a problem for usgovernmentspending.com because this site uses Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction from the Budget of the United States as its basic source for federal subfunction outlays. But the Monthly Treasury Statement only includes "Table 9. Summary of Receipts by Source, and Outlays by Function of the U.S. Government, September 2025 and Other Periods". Subfunction amounts don't get reported until the FY28 budget in February 2027. Until then usgovernmentspending.com estimates actual outlays by "subfunction" for FY 2026 by factoring subfunction budgeted amounts for FY26 by the ratio between relevant actual and budgeted "function" amounts where actual outlays by subfunction cannot be gleaned from the Monthly Treasury Statement.

Final detailed FY 2026 actuals will not appear on usgovernmentspending.com until the FY 2028 federal budget is published in February 2027 with the actual outlays for FY 2026* in Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction.
State and Local Finances for 2024
On August 7, 2026 we updated the state and local spending and revenue for FY 2024 using the new Census Bureau ...

State and Local Finances for 2024 -- First Look
On July 2, 2026 we updated the state and local spending and revenue for FY 2024 using the new Census Bureau S ...

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