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What is the spending on Social Security?

In FY 2020 the federal government spent $1,095 billion on Social Security.

Social Security Spending Analysis

This page shows the current trends in Social Security spending on the OASI and DI programs. There are also charts on OASI and DI spending history. See here for a general history of entitlement spending. See here for spending forecast from latest OASDI Trustees Report.

Recent Social Security Spending

Chart S.11f: Recent Social Security Spending

Chart S.12f: Recent Social Sec. Spend as Pct GDP

Social Security spending has been increasing steadily every year. Back in 2007 Old Age Survivor Insurance (OASI) spending was $486 billion a year, and Disability Insurance (DI) spending was about $100 billion a year. By 2012 OASI had increased to $635 billion and DI to $139 billion. In 2020 OASI spending was $949 billion and DI spending was $147 billion.

Viewed from a GDP perspective, Social Security spending has been pretty stable in the last decade. In 2005 spending was 4 percent of GDP. By 2013 it had increased to 4.85 percent GDP. Social Security spending for 2020 was 4.9 percent GDP, with OASI spending at 4.3 percent GDP and DI spending at 0.7 percent GDP.

US Social Security Spending Since 1935

Social Security benefits cost about 5 percent of GDP each year.

Social Security Program Growth

Chart S.13f: Social Security Spending since 1935

Social Security, the federal old-age pension program, was passed in 1935 in time for the 1936 presidential election. The first old-age benefits were distributed in 1938.

Social Security benefits were modest in the early years and did not exceed one percent of GDP until 1955. But the program cost increased rapidly, reaching 2.2 percent of GDP in 1960.

Benefit increase slowed somewhat in the 1960s, reaching 3.2 percent in 1971. Costs increased again in the early 1970s before peaking at 4.81 percent in 1983.

Social Security benefits as a percent of GDP slowly declined for the rest of the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s down to a low of 4.0 percent of GDP in 2005. But the Great Recession o 2007-09 bumped Social Security up to 4.72 percent of GDP in 2010. Social Security spending has been just under 5 percent GDP since 2013.

 

Social Security Disability Insurance Growth

Chart S.14f: Social Security Spending

The Social Security Disability Insurance Program was enacted in the 1950s and payments began in 1958. Eligibility requirements relaxed in the 1980s.

Starting from zero in 1957 Social Security’s Disability Insurance program reached 0.5 percent of GDP in 1975.

Peaking at 0.55 percent of GDP in the early 1980s, payments declined to a low of 0.43 percent in 1990. But then payments increased, breaching 0.5 percent of GDP in 1993 and 0.6 percent of GDP in 2002. DI reached 0.7 percent of GDP in 2006 and peaked at 0.85 percent of GDP in 2011-13; DI spending is expected to decline to 0.67 percent of GDP by 2020.

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Spending Data Sources

Spending data is from official government sources.

Gross Domestic Product data comes from US Bureau of Economic Analysis and measuringworth.com.

Detailed table of spending data sources here.

Federal spending data begins in 1792.

State and local spending data begins in 1820.

State and local spending data for individual states begins in 1957.

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Gross Federal Debt

Debt Now:  $27,169,498,275,690.70
Debt 2/28:$23,409,959,150,243.63

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Data Sources for 2016_2025:

Sources for 2016:

GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 3.2, 5.1, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances
'Guesstimated' by projecting the latest change in reported spending forward to future years

Sources for 2025:

GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 3.2, 5.1, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances
'Guesstimated' by projecting the latest change in reported spending forward to future years

> data sources for other years
> data update schedule.

Federal Deficit, Receipts, Outlays Actuals for FY 20

On October xx, 2020, the US Treasury reported in its Monthly Treasury Statement (and xls) for September that the federal deficit for FY 2020 ending September 30, 2020, was $2,9xx billion. Here are the numbers, including total receipts, total outlays, and deficit compared with the numbers projected in the FY 2021 federal budget published in February 2020, and the "guesstimates" made by usgovernmentspending.com in late September 2020:

Federal Finances
FY 2020 Outcomes
Budget
billions
Guesst.
billions
Outcome
billions
Receipts $3,706$3,463$3,420
Outlays$4,790$6,371$6,552
Deficit$1,083$2,908$3,132

usgovernmentspending.com now shows the new numbers for total FY 2020 total outlays and receipts on its Estimate vs. Actual page.

The Monthly Treasury Statement includes "Table 4: Receipts of the United States Government, September 2019 and Other Periods." This table of receipts by source is used for usgovernmentspending.com to post details of federal receipt actuals for FY 2020.

This FTS report on FY 20 actuals is a problem for usgovernmentspending.com because this site uses Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction from the Budget of the United States as its basic source for federal subfunction outlays. But the Monthly Treasury Statement only includes "Table 9. Summary of Receipts by Source, and Outlays by Function of the U.S. Government, September 2020 and Other Periods". Subfunction amounts don't get reported until the FY22 budget in February 2021. Until then usgovernmentspending.com estimates actual outlays by "subfunction" for FY 2020 by factoring subfunction budgeted amounts for FY20 by the ratio between relevant actual and budgeted "function" amounts where actual outlays by subfunction cannot be gleaned from the Monthly Treasury Statement.

On top of that, the unbudgeted spending to fight the COVID-19 virus is tucked into various places where you'd least expect it. We have tried to unearth these monies in the FTS and translate them into subfunction amounts.

Final detailed FY 2020 actuals will not appear on usgovernmentspending.com until the FY 2022 federal budget is published in February 2021 with the actual outlays for FY 2020 in Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction.

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