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US Federal Budget Analysis using FY27 OMB Budget

 

Source: Budget of the United States Government
 

Rising US Federal Spending

Rising Federal Spending

Chart B.01f: Rising Federal Spending

US Federal Spending rose steadily in the late 2010s. Spending bumped up to $6.8 trillion in the COVID emergency. Federal spending will continue to rise throughout the 2020s.

In FY2026 US federal spending was $7.4 trillion.

Rising Federal Spending as Pcnt GDP

Chart B.02f: Rising Federal Spending as Pcnt GDP

In terms of percent of GDP, federal spending was steady at 20 percent of GDP in the late 2010s, ballooned to 31 percent GDP in the COVID emergency, and is budgeted to be around 25 percent of GDP throughout the rest of the 2020s.

In FY2026 US federal spending was 24.2 percent GDP.

Rising Federal Deficits

Rising Federal Deficit

Chart B.03f: Rising Federal Deficit

The US Federal Deficit rose steadily in the late 2010s. The Deficit bumped up to $3.1 trillion in 2020 in the COVID emergency. The Federal Deficit is budgeted to stay at over $1.5 trillion a year in the late 2020s.

In FY2026 The US Federal Deficit was $2.0 trillion.

Rising Federal Deficit as Pcnt GDP

Chart B.04f: Rising Federal Deficit as Pcnt GDP

In terms of percent of GDP, the US Federal Deficit doubled in the late 2010s, ballooned to 14.9 percent GDP in the COVID emergency, and is budgeted to be around 5 percent of GDP by the end of the 2020s.

In FY2026 The US Federal Deficit was 6.5 percent GDP.

Rising Federal Debt

Rising Federal Debt

Chart B.05f: Rising Federal Debt

The US Federal Debt rose steadily in the late 2010s, hitting $20 trillion in 2017 and $30 trillion in 2022. The Federal Debt is budgeted to hit $40 trillion in 2027.

In FY2026 The US Federal Debt was $40.17 trillion.

Rising Federal Debt as Percent GDP

Chart B.06f: Rising Federal Debt as Percent GDP

In terms of percent of GDP, the US Federal Debt was rising steadily in the late 2010s, ballooned to 128 percent GDP in the COVID emergency, and is budgeted to be around 130 percent of GDP by the end of the 2020s.

In FY2026 The US Federal Debt was 131.5 percent GDP.

Rising Federal Interest Outlays

Rising Federal Interest

Chart B.07f: Rising Federal Interest

The US Federal Interest outlays rose steadily in the late 2010s, hitting $400 billion in 2019. Starting in 2022, when the Federal Reserve system started increasing interest rates, US Federal Interest outlays have skyrocketed, and are expected to reach $1 trillion per year by the end of the 2020s.

In FY2026 The US Federal Interest was $1,052 billion.

Rising Federal Interest as Pcnt GGP

Chart B.08f: Rising Federal Interest as Pcnt GGP

In terms of percent of GDP, the US Federal Interest outlays were rising steadily in the late 2010s, but then went down in the COVID emergency. Starting in 2022 and higher interest rates, US Federal Interest outlays have nearly doubled, and are expected to hit 3 percent of GDP by the end of the 2020s.

In FY2026 The US Federal Interest outlays were 3.4 percent GDP.

Rising Inflation

Rising US Inflation

Chart B.09f: Rising US Inflation

Inflation began to rise in the decade of the 2010s, from 1 percent to over 2 percent by 2018. But inflation dropped during the COVID emergency.

In the aftermath of COVID US inflation has increased sharply to 7.2 percent in 2022 in response to the sharp increase in the money supply in 2020 and 2021. But the OMB forecasts lower inflation in the second half of the 2020s. In FY2026 US Inflation was 1.33 percent.

Suggested Video: What is the Deficit?

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Debt Data Sources

Debt data is from official government sources.

Gross Domestic Product data comes from US Bureau of Economic Analysis and measuringworth.com.

Detailed table of debt data sources here.

Federal debt data begins in 1792.

State and local debt data begins in 1820.

State and local debt data for individual states begins in 1957.


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Gross Federal Debt

Debt Now:  $40,388,317,675,071.91
Debt 2/2020:$23,409,959,150,243.63

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Data Sources for 2022_2031:

Sources for 2022:

GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 3.2, 5.1, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances
'Guesstimated' by projecting the latest change in reported spending forward to future years

Sources for 2031:

GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 3.2, 5.1, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances
'Guesstimated' by projecting the latest change in reported spending forward to future years

> data sources for other years
> data update schedule.

Blog

US Budget Deficit, Receipts, Outlays for FY 2026

On October 15, 2026, the US Treasury reported in its Monthly Treasury Statement (and xlsx) for September that the federal deficit for FY 2025 ending September 30, 2026, was $1,99 billion. Here are the numbers, including total receipts, total outlays, and deficit compared with the numbers projected in the FY 2026 federal budget published in February 2025:

Federal Finances
FY 2026 Outcomes
Budget
billions		Outcome
billions
Receipts $5,873    $5,403
Outlays$7,419$7,396
Deficit$1,547$1,993

The Monthly Treasury Statement includes "Table 4: Receipts of the United States Government, September 2026 and Other Periods." This table of receipts by source is used for usgovernmentspending.com to post details of federal receipt actuals for FY 2025. usdgovernmentspending.com obtains the data for outlays and receipts from apis at fiscaldata.treasury.gov.


This MTS report on FY 2026 actuals is a problem for usgovernmentspending.com because this site uses Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction from the Budget of the United States as its basic source for federal subfunction outlays. But the Monthly Treasury Statement only includes "Table 9. Summary of Receipts by Source, and Outlays by Function of the U.S. Government, September 2025 and Other Periods". Subfunction amounts don't get reported until the FY28 budget in February 2027. Until then usgovernmentspending.com estimates actual outlays by "subfunction" for FY 2026 by factoring subfunction budgeted amounts for FY26 by the ratio between relevant actual and budgeted "function" amounts where actual outlays by subfunction cannot be gleaned from the Monthly Treasury Statement.

Final detailed FY 2026 actuals will not appear on usgovernmentspending.com until the FY 2028 federal budget is published in February 2027 with the actual outlays for FY 2026* in Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction.
State and Local Finances for 2024
On August 7, 2026 we updated the state and local spending and revenue for FY 2024 using the new Census Bureau ...

State and Local Finances for 2024 -- First Look
On July 2, 2026 we updated the state and local spending and revenue for FY 2024 using the new Census Bureau S ...

> blog

Budget News

President’s FY 2025 Budget Release Scheduled for March 11
Although the FY 2024 appropriations process is not yet resolved

Biden to Release Budget March 9
will press McCarthy On Default Risk - Bloomberg

Biden to Release 2023 Budget Request on March 28
how the administration expects to spend money for priorities including aid to Ukraine and the continuing effort to fight the coronavirus pandemic, as well as legislative proposals such as increased funding for community policing programs, cancer research, and mental health education.

> archive

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