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Social Security Trustees Report 2016

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Start Year: You can select any start year you want using the dropdown control in the table heading. At the top and bottom of the dropdown only years ending in “0” are shown. Select a start year to get close, then select the start year you want.
End Year: You can select any end year you want using the dropdown control in the table heading. At the top and bottom of the dropdown only years ending in “0” are shown. Select an end year to get close, then select the end year you want.

The chart shows a forecast from an annual government report for the cost, in percent of GDP, of the federal government’s Social Security program for seniors through 2090. It shows the individual cost of the two major parts of Social Security: the Old Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI)program and the Disability Insurance (DI) program. See the Social Security Administration’s website for more details.

The numbers are obtained from the SSA’s Reports from the Trustees using numbers from two spreadsheets here. The overall cost of both programs as a percent of GDP is obtained from a table called in 2015 “OASDI and HI Annual Income, Cost, and Balance as a Percentage of GDP.” The breakdown in cost between OASI and DI was obtained form a table called in 2015 “Annual Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balance.” The names of the tables change slightly from year to year.

If you’d like to create your own custom chart of spending data you should use the controls above to make your selections.

  • Select the report date: Select the OASDI report for a different year.
  • Select the year range: Select the start year and the end year you want by selecting the years you want in the two year dropdown boxes.
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Below is a formatted version of the data displayed in the chart.

Social Security Trustees Report 2016
Fiscal Years 2006 to 2090
YearSocial Security OASI
percent GDP
Social Security DI
percent GDP
20063.33a0.68a
20073.38a0.67a
20083.46a0.73a
20093.83a0.82a
20103.88a0.84a
20113.86a0.85a
20123.93a0.86a
20134a0.85a
20144.05a0.82a
20154.14a0.81a
20164.18e0.8e
20174.13e0.78e
20184.21e0.77e
20194.29e0.76e
20204.37e0.75e
20214.43e0.75e
20224.53e0.75e
20234.64e0.75e
20244.75e0.75e
20254.85e0.74e
2026
2027
2028
2029
20305.14e0.73e
2031
2032
2033
2034
20355.25e0.73e
2036
2037
2038
2039
20405.25e0.74e
2041
2042
2043
2044
20455.16e0.76e
2046
2047
2048
2049
20505.09e0.77e
2051
2052
2053
2054
20555.12e0.78e
2056
2057
2058
2059
20605.19e0.78e
2061
2062
2063
2064
20655.25e0.78e
2066
2067
2068
2069
20705.32e0.77e
2071
2072
2073
2074
20755.37e0.76e
2076
2077
2078
2079
20805.33e0.77e
2081
2082
2083
2084
20855.31e0.78e
2086
2087
2088
2089
20905.36e0.78e

Legend:
a - actual reported
e - estimated by Trustees

Data source: Social Security Trustees Report, Table VI.G4

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Spending Data Sources

Spending data is from official government sources.

Gross Domestic Product data comes from US Bureau of Economic Analysis and measuringworth.com.

Detailed table of spending data sources here.

Federal spending data begins in 1792.

State and local spending data begins in 1890.

State and local spending data for individual states begins in 1957.

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Next Data Update

> Federal Budget FY16

> data update schedule.

Data Sources for 2006_2090:

Sources for 2006:

GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 3.2, 5.1, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances

Sources for 2090:

GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 3.2, 5.1, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances
'Guesstimated' by projecting the latest change in reported spending forward to future years

> data sources for other years
> data update schedule.

The Feds Borrow More Than The "Deficit"

People naturally assume that the annual Deficit is the total that the Federal government borrows each year. Actually this is not so. The Deficit is simply the difference between Federal Outlays and Federal Receipts. Usually, the Feds borrow a lot more than the official Deficit.

Like below, in $ billion:

YearGross
Debt
Debt
Increase
Federal
Deficit
Other
Borrow
2000562924-236259
20057905551318232
20101352916531294359
20111476412351300-64
20121605112871087200
201316719669680-11
2014177951075485590
201518120326438-113
2016195371417587830

We have provided the difference between the Debt increase and the Deficit for each year under "Other Borrowings" on the Spending Details page. To Recap:

Other Borrowings = (Increase in Federal Debt) - (Official Deficit)

Spend links

us numbersus budgetcustom chartdeficit/gdpspend/gdpdebt/gdpus gdpus real gdpstate gdpbreakdownfederalstatelocal201520162017californiatexas

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