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US Federal Budget Analysis using FY26 OMB Budget

 

Source: Budget of the United States Government
 

Rising US Federal Spending

Rising Federal Spending

Chart B.01f: Rising Federal Spending

US Federal Spending rose steadily in the late 2010s. Spending bumped up to $6.8 trillion in the COVID emergency. Federal spending will continue to rise throughout the 2020s.

In FY2025 US federal spending was $7.27 trillion.

Rising Federal Spending as Pcnt GDP

Chart B.02f: Rising Federal Spending as Pcnt GDP

In terms of percent of GDP, federal spending was steady at 20 percent of GDP in the late 2010s, ballooned to 31 percent GDP in the COVID emergency, and is budgeted to be around 25 percent of GDP throughout the rest of the 2020s.

In FY2025 US federal spending was 24.8 percent GDP.

Rising Federal Deficits

Rising Federal Deficit

Chart B.03f: Rising Federal Deficit

The US Federal Deficit rose steadily in the late 2010s. The Deficit bumped up to $3.1 trillion in 2020 in the COVID emergency. The Federal Deficit is budgeted to stay at over $1.5 trillion a year in the late 2020s.

In FY2025 The US Federal Deficit was $1.8 trillion.

Rising Federal Deficit as Pcnt GDP

Chart B.04f: Rising Federal Deficit as Pcnt GDP

In terms of percent of GDP, the US Federal Deficit doubled in the late 2010s, ballooned to 14.9 percent GDP in the COVID emergency, and is budgeted to be around 5 percent of GDP by the end of the 2020s.

In FY2025 The US Federal Deficit was 6.1 percent GDP.

Rising Federal Debt

Rising Federal Debt

Chart B.05f: Rising Federal Debt

The US Federal Debt rose steadily in the late 2010s, hitting $20 trillion in 2017 and $30 trillion in 2022. The Federal Debt is budgeted to hit $40 trillion in 2027.

In FY2025 The US Federal Debt was $37.1 trillion.

Rising Federal Debt as Percent GDP

Chart B.06f: Rising Federal Debt as Percent GDP

In terms of percent of GDP, the US Federal Debt was rising steadily in the late 2010s, ballooned to 128 percent GDP in the COVID emergency, and is budgeted to be around 130 percent of GDP by the end of the 2020s.

In FY2025 The US Federal Debt was 126.4 percent GDP.

Rising Federal Interest Outlays

Rising Federal Interest

Chart B.07f: Rising Federal Interest

The US Federal Interest outlays rose steadily in the late 2010s, hitting $400 billion in 2019. Starting in 2022, when the Federal Reserve system started increasing interest rates, US Federal Interest outlays have skyrocketed, and are expected to reach $1 trillion per year by the end of the 2020s.

In FY2025 The US Federal Interest was $965 billion.

Rising Federal Interest as Pcnt GGP

Chart B.08f: Rising Federal Interest as Pcnt GGP

In terms of percent of GDP, the US Federal Interest outlays were rising steadily in the late 2010s, but then went down in the COVID emergency. Starting in 2022 and higher interest rates, US Federal Interest outlays have nearly doubled, and are expected to hit 3 percent of GDP by the end of the 2020s.

In FY2025 The US Federal Interest outlays were 3.3 percent GDP.

Rising Inflation

Rising US Inflation

Chart B.09f: Rising US Inflation

Inflation began to rise in the decade of the 2010s, from 1 percent to over 2 percent by 2018. But inflation dropped during the COVID emergency.

In the aftermath of COVID US inflation has increased sharply to 7.2 percent in 2022 in response to the sharp increase in the money supply in 2020 and 2021. But the OMB forecasts lower inflation in the second half of the 2020s. In FY2025 US Inflation was 1.99 percent.

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Debt Data Sources

Debt data is from official government sources.

Gross Domestic Product data comes from US Bureau of Economic Analysis and measuringworth.com.

Detailed table of debt data sources here.

Federal debt data begins in 1792.

State and local debt data begins in 1820.

State and local debt data for individual states begins in 1957.


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Prepared by Christopher Chantrill.
email: chrischantrill@gmail.com

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Gross Federal Debt

Debt Now:  $38,380,536,147,996.03
Debt 2/2020:$23,409,959,150,243.63

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Data Sources for 2021_2029:

Sources for 2021:

GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 3.2, 5.1, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances
'Guesstimated' by projecting the latest change in reported spending forward to future years

Sources for 2029:

GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 3.2, 5.1, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances
'Guesstimated' by projecting the latest change in reported spending forward to future years

> data sources for other years
> data update schedule.

Blog

Medicaid Update for FY2024

On January 14, 2026, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) published its annual report on National Health Expenditures and its NHE Tables includes data on Medicaid from 1960 to 2023. On January 15, 2026, usgovernmentspending.com updated its Medicaid data.

Item2024
Estimate
2024
Actual
Federal Medicaid$567.2 bn$567.2 bn 
State Medicaid (net)$124.4 bn$253.2 bn 
Total Medicaid$691.6 bn$820.4 bn 

The federal Medicaid number comes from the Federal Budget Subfunction 558: Grants to states for Medicaid. The state contribution comes from the NHE Tables.

usgovernmentspending.com publishes "guesstimates" of state and local spending from the latest year published by the Census Bureau (currently FY 2023) to the last year in the Historical Tables of the federal budget. (currently 2029 from the FY25 budget). So we have developed "guesstimates" of Medicaid spending going out to 2029, assuming that the overall Medicaid spending increases at the same rate as the federal "Grants to States for Medicaid" increases.

National Health Expenditure data is updated each year in mid December. 

CBO Long Term Budget Outlook for 2025
On March 27, 2025 the Congressional Budget Office released its annual Long Term Budget Outlook for 2025, which projects federal spendin ...

State FY25 Taxes Update
On November 22, 2025 usgovernmentspending.com updated FY2025 state revenue with quarterly tax data released by the US Ce ...

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