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What is the Federal Yield Curve

The Federal Yield Curve is a graph showing the yield on US federal securities of all maturities from one month to 30 years. Experts believe that the shape of the yield curve forecasts future turns in the economy.

Federal Yield Analysis  

 

This page is an analysis of yields on US federal securities.

Latest Federal Yield Curve

Chart Y.01f: Latest Federal Yield Curve

The US Treasury Yield Curve shows the current yield of the full range of securities issued by the US Treasury, from One Month Treasury Bills to 30 Year Treasury Bonds. “Experts agree” that a “normal” yield curve, where every security with a longer maturity has a yield greater than all securities with a shorter maturity, is the sign of a growing economy.

Federal Yield Curve for April 1, 2009

Chart Y.02f: Federal Yield Curve

At the bottom of a recession, as in April 2009, the federal yield curve is sharply positive. A sharply positive yield curve is a sign that the Federal Reserve Board is “fighting recession.”

Federal Yield Curve for November 28,2006

Chart Y.03f: Federal Yield Curve

An “inverted” yield curve, where US securities with shorter maturity have yields greater than some securities with a longer maturity, “experts agree,” is a flashing red sign indicating recession ahead. An “inverted” yield curve is a sign that the Federal Reserve Board is “fighting inflation.”

Federal Yield Curve for June 2, 2008

Chart Y.04f: Federal Yield Curve

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Spending Data Sources

Spending data is from official government sources.

Gross Domestic Product data comes from US Bureau of Economic Analysis and measuringworth.com.

Detailed table of spending data sources here.
Medicare breakdown here; Medicaid breakdown here.

Federal spending data begins in 1792.

State and local spending data begins in 1820.

State and local spending data for individual states begins in 1957.

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Federal Yield Curve
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Gross Federal Debt

Debt Now:  $37,889,756,572,760.44
Debt 2/2020:$23,409,959,150,243.63

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State and Local Finances for 2023

On September 11, 2025 we updated the state and local spending and revenue for FY 2023 using the new Census Bureau State and Local Government Finances summaries for FY 2023 released on July 31, 2025.  (See also Annual Survey of State and Local Government Finances). The release includes state and local spending for the United States as a whole and the 50 individual states and the District of Columbia.

State and local spending and revenue for FY2023 are now actual historical spending as reported by the Census Bureau. In addition, the Census Bureau published updated tables for 2021 and 2022.

We have updated the "guesstimated" state and local finances for FY2024-30 as indicated in our "guesstimate" blog entries.

We have also updated data for individual local government units with data for 2023. 

Beginning in 2022 the Census Bureau has changed the value for Line 56 Direct Expenditure and Line 7 General Revenue from own sources, as follows:

We have decided to end our publication of non-insurance trust cash and security holdings.

However, to keep the time series at usgovernmentspending.com consistent, we have decided to add insurance-trust values back into Line 56 and Line 7 values. 

State Spending for 2023
In March 2025 the US Census Bureau released data on state finances for FY 2023 here and  ...

Agency Debt Update for 2024
On June 24, 2025, usgovernmentspending.com updated its data for agency debt from the Federal Reserve Board database. Data is now available for the period 1945-2024. You can see our Agency Debt page ...

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