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What is Entitlement Spending?

In FY 2023, total government spending on pensions, health care and welfare was “guesstimated” to be $4.70 trillion. Guesstimated entitlement spending for FY 2024 is $4.93 trillion.

Total Entitlement Spending Analysis  

 

This page shows the current trends in US total entitlement spending. Also see charts on US entitlement spending history.

Recent US Total Entitlement Spending

Recent Total Entitlement Spending

Chart S.51t: Recent Total Entitlement Spending

Recent Total Entitlm'ts as Pct GDP

Chart S.52t: Recent Total Entitlm'ts as Pct GDP

Total Entitlement Spending increased strongly, year on year, in the late 2000s, driven by increased spending for welfare in the Great Recession of 2008-09, but then saw a few years of minimal increase as welfare decreased during the early years of the recovery. Total entitlement spending for 2023 was $4.70 trillion.

Viewed from a GDP perspective, total entitlement spending rocketed from 14.4 percent GDP in 2007 to 18.4 percent GDP in 2010 in response to the Great Recession. But in the subsequent economic recovery total entitlement spending steadied and remained below 17.5 percent GDP in the late 2010s. Total entitlement spending for 2023 was 17.0 percent GDP.

Total Entitlement Spending Since 1930

Total Entitlements since 1930

Chart S.53t: Total Entitlements since 1930

Total Entitlements as Share of Total

Chart S.54t: Total Entitlements as Share of Total

In 1900 there was no entitlement spending, except a small amount of health care spending. But the Great Depression ended that, with welfare spending to ease unemployment peaking at 2 percent GDP in 1939.

After World War II pension spending -- mostly Social Security -- surged, reaching 2.6 percent of GDP in 1961 and then up to 5.82 percent of GDP in 1982. During the 1980s, 1990s, and 2010s pension spending grew slowly, but jumped to 6.5 percent of GDP in the recession year of 2009.

Starting with the enactment of Medicare and Medicaid in 1965 health care spending has ballooned from 1 percent of GDP in 1960 to 8.2 percent of GDP in the late 2010s.

After World War II welfare spending grew from war-time lows, eventually fluctuating between 2 percent GDP in good times and 3 to 4 percent in the aftermath of recessions.

As a share of government spending, entitlement spending has come to amount to about half of total government spending.

Before 1930 there were no appreciable entitlement programs. But in the Great Depression welfare ranged between 1 and 2 percent of GDP, while health care spending came in at under 1 percent GDP.

After World War II pensions and health care spending steadily increased as a share of government spending. In the 2010s, with total spending at 35 percent GDP, pensions and health care spending amounted to nearly half of government spending, at about 15 percent GDP.

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Spending Data Sources

Spending data is from official government sources.

Gross Domestic Product data comes from US Bureau of Economic Analysis and measuringworth.com.

Detailed table of spending data sources here.
Medicare breakdown here; Medicaid breakdown here.

Federal spending data begins in 1792.

State and local spending data begins in 1820.

State and local spending data for individual states begins in 1957.

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Debt Now:  $34,544,912,251,854.53
Debt 2/2020:$23,409,959,150,243.63

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Data Sources for 2019_2029:

Sources for 2019:

GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 3.2, 5.1, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances
'Guesstimated' by projecting the latest change in reported spending forward to future years

Sources for 2029:

GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 3.2, 5.1, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances
'Guesstimated' by projecting the latest change in reported spending forward to future years

> data sources for other years
> data update schedule.

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Federal Budget for FY25 Released

On March 11, 2024, we updated usgovernmentspending.com with the numbers from the Public Budget Database in the Budget of the United States Government for Fiscal Year 2025

Here is how headline budget estimates for the upcoming FY 2024 fiscal year have changed since the release of the FY 2024 budget a year ago in Winter 2023.

Federal Budget Changes for 2024
$ billionEstimate for 2024
in FY2024 Budget
Estimate for 2024
in FY2025 Budget
Change
Federal Outlays$6,371.8$6,940.9 +$569.1
Federal Receipts$4,802.5$5,081.6+$279.1
Federal Deficit$1,569.4$1,859.4+$290.0

You can see line item changes from budget to budget here. You can compare budget estimates with actuals here.

Account level spending estimates through FY 2029 come from the Outlays table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on usgovernmentspending.com on March 11, 2024.

Account level budget authority estimates through FY 2029 come from the Budget Authority table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on usgovernmentspending.com on March 11, 2024. 

Agency Debt Update for 2023
On March 11, 2024, usgovernmentspending.com updated its data for agency debt from the Federal Reserve Board database. Data is now available for the period 1945-2023. You can see our Agency Debt pag ...

US GDP for 2023 Updated
On January 19, 2024 usgovernmentspending.com updated its GDP series with the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, ...

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