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What is Entitlement Spending?

In FY 2026, total government spending on pensions, health care and welfare was “guesstimated” to be $5.83 trillion. Guesstimated entitlement spending for FY 2027 is $6.24 trillion.

Total Entitlement Spending Analysis  

 

This page shows the current trends in US total entitlement spending. Also see charts on US entitlement spending history.

Recent US Total Entitlement Spending

Recent Total Entitlement Spending

Chart S.51t: Recent Total Entitlement Spending

Total Entitlement Spending increased strongly, year on year, in the late 2000s, driven by increased spending for welfare in the Great Recession of 2008-09, but then saw a few years of minimal increase as welfare decreased during the early years of the recovery. Entitlement spending spiked during the COVID years.

Total entitlement spending for 2026 was $5.83 trillion.

Recent Total Entitlm'ts as Pct GDP

Chart S.52t: Recent Total Entitlm'ts as Pct GDP

Viewed from a GDP perspective, total entitlement spending rocketed from 14.4 percent GDP in 2007 to 18.4 percent GDP in 2010 in response to the Great Recession. But in the subsequent economic recovery total entitlement spending steadied and remained below 17.5 percent GDP in the late 2010s. Total entitlement spending spiked above 22 percent GDP in the COVID years but then declined to 17 percent of GDP.

Total entitlement spending for 2026 was 19.1 percent GDP.

Total Entitlement Spending Since 1930

Total Entitlements since 1930

Chart S.53t: Total Entitlements since 1930

Total Entitlements as Share of Total

Chart S.54t: Total Entitlements as Share of Total

In 1900 there was no entitlement spending, except a small amount of health care spending. But the Great Depression ended that, with welfare spending to ease unemployment peaking at 2 percent GDP in 1939.

After World War II pension spending -- mostly Social Security -- surged, reaching 2.6 percent of GDP in 1961 and then up to 5.82 percent of GDP in 1982. During the 1980s, 1990s, and 2010s pension spending grew slowly, but jumped to 6.5 percent of GDP in the recession year of 2009.

Starting with the enactment of Medicare and Medicaid in 1965 health care spending has ballooned from 1 percent of GDP in 1960 to 8.2 percent of GDP in the late 2010s.

After World War II welfare spending grew from war-time lows, eventually fluctuating between 2 percent GDP in good times and 3 to 4 percent in the aftermath of recessions.

As a share of government spending, entitlement spending has come to amount to about half of total government spending.

Before 1930 there were no appreciable entitlement programs. But in the Great Depression welfare ranged between 1 and 2 percent of GDP, while health care spending came in at under 1 percent GDP.

After World War II pensions and health care spending steadily increased as a share of government spending. In the 2010s, with total spending at 35 percent GDP, pensions and health care spending amounted to nearly half of government spending, at about 15 percent GDP.

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Spending Data Sources

Spending data is from official government sources.

Gross Domestic Product data comes from US Bureau of Economic Analysis and measuringworth.com.

Detailed table of spending data sources here.
Medicare breakdown here; Medicaid breakdown here.

Federal spending data begins in 1792.

State and local spending data begins in 1820.

State and local spending data for individual states begins in 1957.

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Data Sources for 2022_2031:

Sources for 2022:

GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 3.2, 5.1, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances
'Guesstimated' by projecting the latest change in reported spending forward to future years

Sources for 2031:

GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 3.2, 5.1, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances
'Guesstimated' by projecting the latest change in reported spending forward to future years

> data sources for other years
> data update schedule.

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US Budget Deficit, Receipts, Outlays for FY 2026

On October 15, 2026, the US Treasury reported in its Monthly Treasury Statement (and xlsx) for September that the federal deficit for FY 2025 ending September 30, 2026, was $1,99 billion. Here are the numbers, including total receipts, total outlays, and deficit compared with the numbers projected in the FY 2026 federal budget published in February 2025:

Federal Finances
FY 2026 Outcomes
Budget
billions
Outcome
billions
Receipts $5,873    $5,403
Outlays$7,419$7,396
Deficit$1,547$1,993

The Monthly Treasury Statement includes "Table 4: Receipts of the United States Government, September 2026 and Other Periods." This table of receipts by source is used for usgovernmentspending.com to post details of federal receipt actuals for FY 2025. usdgovernmentspending.com obtains the data for outlays and receipts from apis at fiscaldata.treasury.gov.


This MTS report on FY 2026 actuals is a problem for usgovernmentspending.com because this site uses Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction from the Budget of the United States as its basic source for federal subfunction outlays. But the Monthly Treasury Statement only includes "Table 9. Summary of Receipts by Source, and Outlays by Function of the U.S. Government, September 2025 and Other Periods". Subfunction amounts don't get reported until the FY28 budget in February 2027. Until then usgovernmentspending.com estimates actual outlays by "subfunction" for FY 2026 by factoring subfunction budgeted amounts for FY26 by the ratio between relevant actual and budgeted "function" amounts where actual outlays by subfunction cannot be gleaned from the Monthly Treasury Statement.

Final detailed FY 2026 actuals will not appear on usgovernmentspending.com until the FY 2028 federal budget is published in February 2027 with the actual outlays for FY 2026* in Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction.
State and Local Finances for 2024
On August 7, 2026 we updated the state and local spending and revenue for FY 2024 using the new Census Bureau ...

State and Local Finances for 2024 -- First Look
On July 2, 2026 we updated the state and local spending and revenue for FY 2024 using the new Census Bureau S ...

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